Recently I was asked, what is the market size for children's books in Malaysia? You can look at market size in different ways but an easy way is to refer to the country's population age structure, taking into consideration other population demographics. The data below is taken from the World Factbook.
Age structure (2020 Est)
0-14 years: 26.8% (male 4,504,562/female 4,246,681) 15-24 years: 16.63% (male 2,760,244/female 2,670,186) 25-54 years: 40.86% (male 6,737,826/female 6,604,776) 55-64 years: 8.81% (male 1,458,038/female 1,418,280) 65 years and over: 6.9% (male 1,066,627/female 1,184,863)
Population: 32,652,083 (July 2020 est.)
From the above you can see at a quick glance that broadly, the market size for children's books (0-14 years) is about 8 million. However, to drill down further, look at the school enrolment figures from the Malaysian Ministry of Education:
BILANGAN MURID / NUMBER OF SCHOOL CHILDREN (ENROLMEN)
Peringkat / Level Jumlah / Total
Prasekolah / Preschool 208,131
Rendah / Primary 2,741,837
Secondary 2,037,433
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Data APDM 31 Julai 2020
So if you are targeting preschoolers, your market size is about 200,000.
The study of demographics is extremely interesting and tells many stories, not only the history but also the future. For example, if the country's birth rate is reducing over the years, you can expect that your market size as a children's book publisher is going to be smaller. If you are producing books for adults, the age structure gives you can indication of the priorities, for example, entering the workforce, getting married, starting a family.
Just as a comparison, here's the population age structure for South Korea:
Age structure (2020 est.)
0-14 years: 12.49% (male 8,047,183/female 7,623,767) 15-24 years: 9.47% (male 6,254,352/female 5,635,377) 25-54 years: 36.8% (male 22,867,385/female 23,317,140) 55-64 years: 12.06% (male 7,564,067/female 7,570,732) 65 years and over: 29.18% (male 16,034,973/female 20,592,496)
Total population: 51,835,110 (July 2020 est.)
From this you may easily conclude the market size for children's books is comparatively small but other factors must be taken into consideration as well. For example, purchasing power is one and that parents may well spend more on the fewer children. Nevertheless, one thing certain from this statistics is that the market for children's books is shrinking which is also reflected in the birth rate and population growth rate (country comparison).
And since we are talking about southeast asia, below are the population structures for the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with a total population of more than one billion.
Brunei Darussalam - Pop: 464,478
0-14 years: 22.41% (male 53,653/female 50,446) 15-24 years: 16.14% (male 37,394/female 37,559) 25-54 years: 47.21% (male 103,991/female 115,291) 55-64 years: 8.34% (male 19,159/female 19,585) 65 years and over: 5.9% (male 13,333/female 14,067) (2020 est.)
Cambodia - Pop: 16,926,984 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 30.18% (male 2,582,427/female 2,525,619) 15-24 years: 17.28% (male 1,452,784/female 1,472,769) 25-54 years: 41.51% (male 3,442,051/female 3,584,592) 55-64 years: 6.44% (male 476,561/female 612,706) 65 years and over: 4.59% (male 287,021/female 490,454) (2020 est.)
Indonesia - Pop: 267,026,366 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 23.87% (male 32,473,246/female 31,264,034) 15-24 years: 16.76% (male 22,786,920/female 21,960,130) 25-54 years: 42.56% (male 58,249,570/female 55,409,579) 55-64 years: 8.99% (male 11,033,838/female 12,968,005) 65 years and over: 7.82% (male 9,099,773/female 11,781,271) (2020 est.)
Laos - Pop: 7,447,396 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 31.25% (male 1,177,297/female 1,149,727) 15-24 years: 20.6% (male 763,757/female 770,497) 25-54 years: 38.29% (male 1,407,823/female 1,443,774) 55-64 years: 5.73% (male 206,977/female 219,833) 65 years and over: 4.13% (male 139,665/female 168,046) (2020 est.)
Malaysia - Pop: 32,652,083 (July 2020 est.)
[see above]
Myanmar - Pop: 56,590,071 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 25.97% (male 7,524,869/female 7,173,333) 15-24 years: 17% (male 4,852,122/female 4,769,412) 25-54 years: 42.76% (male 11,861,971/female 12,337,482) 55-64 years: 8.22% (male 2,179,616/female 2,472,681) 65 years and over: 6.04% (male 1,489,807/female 1,928,778) (2020 est.)
Philippines - Pop: 109,180,815 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 32.42% (male 18,060,976/female 17,331,781) 15-24 years: 19.16% (male 10,680,325/female 10,243,047) 25-54 years: 37.37% (male 20,777,741/female 20,027,153) 55-64 years: 6.18% (male 3,116,485/female 3,633,301) 65 years and over: 4.86% (male 2,155,840/female 3,154,166) (2020 est.)
Singapore - Pop: 6,209,660 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 12.8% (male 406,983/female 387,665) 15-24 years: 15.01% (male 457,190/female 474,676) 25-54 years: 50.73% (male 1,531,088/female 1,618,844) 55-64 years: 10.58% (male 328,024/female 328,808) 65 years and over: 10.89% (male 310,123/female 366,259) (2020 est.)
Thailand - Pop: 68,977,400 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 16.45% (male 5,812,803/female 5,533,772) 15-24 years: 13.02% (male 4,581,622/female 4,400,997) 25-54 years: 45.69% (male 15,643,583/female 15,875,353) 55-64 years: 13.01% (male 4,200,077/female 4,774,801) 65 years and over: 11.82% (male 3,553,273/female 4,601,119) (2020 est.)
Vietnam - Pop: 98,721,275 (July 2020 est.)
0-14 years: 22.61% (male 11,733,704/female 10,590,078) 15-24 years: 15.22% (male 7,825,859/female 7,202,716) 25-54 years: 45.7% (male 22,852,429/female 22,262,566) 55-64 years: 9.55% (male 4,412,111/female 5,016,880) 65 years and over: 6.91% (male 2,702,963/female 4,121,969) (2020 est.)
Time for disclaimer - more detailed study is required for a better picture of market size and other factors affecting it. But demographics is always a good start.
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Linda majored in Economics Statistics at university and her first introduction to the subject was the phrase: Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics.
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